Engineering detail behind the forecasts: the G1 lab experiment, data, odds and the model freeze.
2026-27 SHADOW EVALUATION · prospective · research only.
Last shadow pass: Sat Nov 07 03:01 PM ET
G1 is the frozen model plus starting-goalie information, run beside it as a lab experiment. It failed its pre-season development test and is not used for any official forecast. Only the moneyline is decision-bearing; the puck line and total are derived and not validated.
Decided games: G1 243, frozen model 264. The two records cover different games (G1 began 2026-10-03), so these totals are not a like-for-like comparison; the per-game table below compares the same games. THIN marks fewer than 30 decided games.
| Market | G1 (lab experiment) | Frozen model (official) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decided | Result | Detail | Decided | Result | Detail | |
| Moneyline (decision-bearing) | 243 | 59.3% right | log loss 0.6522 | 264 | 59.5% right | log loss 0.6573 |
| Puck line (market line) (not validated) | 232 | 61.2% won | W-L-P 142-90-0 | 249 | 61.4% won | W-L-P 153-96-0 |
| Total (market line) (not validated) | 232 | 49.1% won | W-L-P 114-118-0 | 249 | 48.2% won | W-L-P 120-129-0 |
| Game | Projected goalies (away / home) | Moneyline G1 | Moneyline frozen | Puck line G1 (not validated) | Puck line frozen | Total G1 (not validated) | Total frozen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA @ WSH | Schmid (GoaliePost, RotoWire) Thompson (GoaliePost, RotoWire) | FLA 57 | no frozen-model forecast in the current record | FLA +1.5 79 | — | Over 6.5 50 | — |
| STL @ NSH | Hofer (GoaliePost, RotoWire) no report yet - using usual rotation | STL 50 | no frozen-model forecast in the current record | STL +1.5 73 | — | Over 5.5 59 | — |
| NYR @ SEA | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | NYR 55 | NYR 54 | SEA +1.5 69 | SEA +1.5 69 | Under 6.5 52 | Under 6.5 52 |
| MTL @ TOR | no report yet - using usual rotation sources disagree - using usual rotation | MTL 51 | MTL 51 | TOR +1.5 72 | TOR +1.5 72 | Under 6.5 50 | Under 6.5 50 |
| UTA @ OTT | no report yet - using usual rotation Ersson (GoaliePost, RotoWire) | UTA 53 | UTA 52 | OTT +1.5 71 | OTT +1.5 71 | Under 6.5 53 | Under 6.5 53 |
| NJD @ NYI | no report yet - using usual rotation Sorokin (GoaliePost, RotoWire) | NJD 60 | NJD 61 | NYI +1.5 64 | NYI +1.5 63 | Over 5.5 57 | Over 5.5 57 |
| CHI @ CAR | no report yet - using usual rotation Kochetkov (GoaliePost) | CAR 78 | CAR 78 | CAR -1.5 56 | CAR -1.5 56 | Under 6.5 50 | Under 6.5 50 |
| SJS @ DAL | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | DAL 66 | DAL 65 | SJS +1.5 59 | SJS +1.5 59 | Under 6.5 54 | Under 6.5 54 |
| TBL @ MIN | no report yet - using usual rotation Pickard (RotoWire) | MIN 53 | MIN 54 | MIN +1.5 76 | MIN +1.5 76 | Under 6.5 55 | Under 6.5 55 |
| DET @ COL | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | COL 57 | COL 57 | DET +1.5 67 | DET +1.5 67 | Under 6.5 51 | Under 6.5 51 |
| PIT @ LAK | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | LAK 53 | LAK 53 | PIT +1.5 71 | PIT +1.5 71 | Under 6.5 52 | Under 6.5 52 |
| VAN @ EDM | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | EDM 68 | EDM 68 | VAN +1.5 55 | VAN +1.5 55 | Under 6.5 50 | Under 6.5 51 |
| FLA @ BOS | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | FLA 54 | FLA 54 | — | FLA +1.5 77 | — | Over 6 47 |
| VGK @ BUF | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | VGK 52 | VGK 52 | — | BUF +1.5 72 | — | Under 6.5 54 |
| TBL @ WPG | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | TBL 62 | TBL 62 | — | WPG +1.5 62 | — | Over 6.5 50 |
| NJD @ TOR | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | NJD 62 | NJD 62 | — | TOR +1.5 62 | — | Under 6.5 53 |
| PHI @ CGY | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | CGY 53 | CGY 53 | — | PHI +1.5 71 | — | Over 5.5 59 |
| PIT @ ANA | no report yet - using usual rotation no report yet - using usual rotation | ANA 52 | ANA 52 | — | PIT +1.5 72 | — | Under 6.5 52 |
Each pick shows the team (or side and line) and its confidence, the forecast probability x 100. Lines are the market line.
Projected goalies are shown by surname and source organisation only. Goalies are listed as in the committed G1 record; "no report yet - using usual rotation" means no usable report was in the record, so G1 weighted the likely starters.
One frozen model (Tournament V2 poisson_glm) turns team data into a grid of possible final scores. The moneyline, puck line and total all come from that grid. Nothing on the forecasting path is refit during the season.
This page is the engineering view: data feeds, odds matching and the model freeze. It changes nothing on the other pages.
7a3d0009b511a39f9cf00dd09b12a2c816ea8f8354b8334933d2707b7d3cdffcB* comparator (baseline_xg) coefficients are frozen beside the candidate for research only; they never produce a forecast of record.